Research
Chayce Reed

Research

"The athletes of the mind, like those playing on the field, must be prepared for privations, long training, a sometimes superhuman tenacity"

A.G. Sertillanges

ZWXUY

My research uses computational causal inference to study how policies, systems, and algorithms shape health outcomes, and who they leave behind. It spans two areas: developing and applying causal methods for health services and policy research, and addressing the inequities produced by automated decision-making in health care.

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Methods Development

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TRANSLATE

R Package · Methods Paper
Active Development
External Cohort Reweighting via ESS-Maximization
A novel statistical framework for borrowing information from external cohorts to augment inference in a target study. The core contribution is an optimization-based reweighting scheme that identifies importance weights for the external cohort by maximizing effective sample size (ESS) subject to covariate balance constraints, producing weights that make external data as informative as possible for inference in the target population while explicitly controlling for distributional shift between populations.
ESS-MaximizationImportance ReweightingCovariate BalanceBootstrap InferenceDistributional Shift
Source PrivatePaper targeting submission August 2026
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WMAP

R Package
v1.3.1 · CRAN · R Journal Under Review
Weighted Multi-Study Analysis Package
An R package for causal inference across multiple observational studies, each containing multiple groups, using a unified balancing weight framework. The package implements three weighting approaches (including the novel FLEXOR method that maximizes effective sample size through iterative optimization) to create covariate-balanced pseudo-populations that enable valid estimation of group-specific potential outcome features (means, medians, standard deviations) under study-specific unconfoundedness.
ICIGOFLEXORMulti-Study PoolingParallel Bootstrap
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Applied Causal Inference

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Algorithmic design choices as determinants of health equity: a structural causal simulation study of care management targeting

Computational Causal Inference · Health Equity
Preprint in Preparation
Evaluates how three modifiable algorithmic design choices (selection threshold, predictor feature set, and training objective) independently shape allocation equity in care management targeting using a structural causal simulation framework. Each design choice is operationalized as a formal do-operation on the allocation system causal graph, enabling counterfactual evaluation of independent equity effects across racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic subgroups. Leverages linkage of OMOP-structured EHR data with self-reported general health status from the All of Us participant survey to construct a novel access-independent equity benchmark capturing disparities invisible to utilization-based metrics. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition identifies prior outpatient visits as the dominant driver of the Black-White allocation gap. Training objective variation produced the most substantial equity effects, with switching to a health status objective achieving near-zero Black-White EOD and reversing disparity direction under survey-enriched conditions.
NIH All of UsOMOPEHR + SurveyStructural Causal ModelEqual Opportunity DifferenceCare Management TargetingOaxaca-Blinder Decomposition
Source PrivatePreprint in preparation for medRxiv
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COVID-19 and Hospital-Onset MRSA

Applied Causal Inference · Health Systems
Complete
1First Place · Health Sciences Case Competition 2026
Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Analyzes the causal impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital-onset MRSA infection rates using a 10-year national panel dataset spanning 2015–2024. Identification uses interrupted time series with state fixed effects to estimate pandemic disruption to infection control trends, controlling for pre-existing state-level trajectories. The framework was extended to evaluate state-level policy and demographic moderators of pandemic impact.
Interrupted Time SeriesState Fixed EffectsPanel DataHeterogeneous Effects
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Medicaid Expansion and Insurance Coverage

Applied Causal Inference · Health Policy
Live
An Event-Study Difference-in-Differences Analysis
Estimates the causal effect of ACA Medicaid expansion on insurance coverage among low-income adults using individual-level ACS PUMS microdata spanning 2010–2023. Compares 2014 expansion states against never-expanding states via a two-way fixed effects event-study DiD design (fixest::feols), recovering year-by-year treatment effect estimates and state-level counterfactuals. Finds that expansion states achieved persistently lower uninsured rates post-2014, with an estimated 35,000 low-income adults left uninsured in Texas alone due to non-expansion.
Event-Study DiDTwo-Way Fixed EffectsACS PUMSCounterfactual PredictionSurvey-Weighted Estimation
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Population Health Analytics

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Annual Health Review

Applied Research · Population Health
Active Development
Population Health Analytics Platform
Interactive population health analytics platform built on NHANES data. Presents large-scale health and behavioral survey data through polished, navigable visualizations covering health behaviors, chronic conditions, and social determinants of health.
NHANESSurvey-Weighted EstimationInteractive Visualization
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Collaborative Contributions

2

Collegiate Softball Preseason Injury Prevention Study

Sports Medicine & Epidemiology

Contributor
Active

Dog Ownership, Pregnancy, and Childhood Food Allergy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Systematic Review · Pediatric Epidemiology

Contributor
Active